County Deputy Health Officer Dr. Thomas Warne spoke to Contra Costa Supervisors this afternoon regarding COVID-19.
Below is a quick summary of the information he provided (in his words):
- The county has an 8% overall COVID-19 test positivity rate.
- The county has about 700 new COVID-19 cases per day.
- Said 30 people have died from COVID-19 this month. (note: county dashboard shows 11 deaths in December)
- Vaccines are a “ray of hope” and a “light at the end of the tunnel.” The vaccines are “safe and effective.”
- Expecting to get more vaccines on a weekly basis.
- Vaccines will be available to the general public by mid-2021 at the latest.
Dr. Warne also answered written questions from the public.
Below are his answers:
- It hasn’t been determined when jail inmates will receive the vaccine.
- Outdoor dining at restaurants could potentially be “very risky” because people remove their masks, talk, laugh, etc. It wouldn’t make sense to leave outdoor dining open when they are closing similar things because of the risk. Says all decisions are science based.
- Says stay-at-home orders are effective.
- Dr. Warne briefly talked about a letter from three John Muir Doctors who questioned the lockdown. The letter said ICU capacity is normal for this time of year, the mental health of children is collapsing, etc. Dr. Warne said he doesn’t share the opinions expressed in the letter. Said there are many different opinions, but he is confident of the health department’s data and their decision making. (note: letter shown at the bottom of post)
More answers below:
- Health department is not verifying if those who get the vaccine already had COVID-19. It appears those who were infected with COVID-19 are immune for about three months. It makes sense to get the vaccination even if you’ve had COVID-19 because the vaccine will give more immunity.
- Dining in/out of a restaurant is not an essential activity, since people can get take-out and eat at home.
- Getting kids back to school is everyone’s priority.
A video of today’s meeting will be posted when the county makes it available.
LETTER DR. WARNE BRIEFLY DISCUSSED FROM THREE JOHN MUIR DOCTORS (BELOW):
Dr. Farnitano and Contra Costa County supervisors,
We are writing to you with deep concern regarding more lockdown measures for our county. We feel the science is
clear that more lockdowns lead to much more non covid morbidity and mortality as supported by the CDC.
We are confused as to why this is happening as we are often overcapacity in our hospitals and ICUs every winter and
we have never done this previously. We also run our ICUs normally at a high rate of occupancy as this is most cost
effective.
Here are the issues in a nutshell:
1. Excessive PCR testing is leading to numerous false positive results. The specificity of PCR testing is really unknown but I have seen many authorities claim it is no higher than the low 90% range because of the attempt to be 100% sensitive using cycle threshold standards of 40. (sensitivity is inversely related to specificity)
2. For the sake of illustration, I will assume a 97‐98% specificity which is likely far too high. Back in March when the
county could only perform 300‐400 tests per day, a 98% specificity would only lead to 6‐8 false positive tests. Now we have reached up to 8000 tests per day. With a 98% specificity, that would lead to 160 false positive cases a day in our county. With a population of 1.1 million that would put us at 14.5 positive cases per 100,000 population and we would find ourselves in the worst possible tier based solely on false positive tests!!! This is absolutely a fact of
epidemiology/science.
3. Again we have normal ICU and hospital winter surges that happen every winter and we never had any county
lockdowns. Our county figures on your website show essentially a stable ICU occupancy from July 1st to today. In
addition on your website, we only have a minimal surge in hospitalized patients as compared to last year.
4. When you test like this for everyone that comes into your hospital, ‘hospital covid patient” numbers will rise simply because you are capturing more asymptomatic disease in patients who otherwise are visiting the hospital for other reasons.
5. Public policy is being based on these erroneous numbers and assumptions.
6. Public policy with shutdowns (various closures) leads to excessive non covid related deaths. Please see attached CDC article which shows clearly that these excessive deaths are most pronounced in the 25‐44 year old age range with numerous weeks during this year that 40‐50% excessive deaths are seen in this age group. When you measure in terms of life‐years lost as compared to life‐years lost with actual covid deaths, it is not even close. We are harming more people in our community who do not have nor are at risk of having significant covid disease with senseless closures of businesses and schools. This is data supported.
7. The CDC and pediatric societies across America have voiced their support of opening all schools. School age children are not significant vectors of the disease.
With this information above, can you answer the following questions:
1. how do you account for these high numbers of false positives with the county tiering system? Do you throw these
numbers out so that only true positives are counted?
2. Why did you not intervene with any type of community closure in the past winters when our hospitals were at
overcapacity? What is different now?
3. What data do you have that supports closures of businesses like gyms and outdoor dining while keeping other
businesses open like Walmart? What data do you have that supports that we stay indoors as opposed to outdoors? (all the science that we have reviewed supports a predominantly 99% indoor vehicle of transmission).
4. Why have you gone against the medical experts in not recommending the opening of our schools?
5. What about our county’s ICU figures caused you to trigger a closure? As you can see on Contra Costa County website, ICU occupancy has been stable between 75 and 80% since July 1st despite changing covid admissions.
Please be specific here. When we run normally at 75% occupancy, why is 85% so terrible?
We handle these surges every winter. It is expected.
We look forward to your reply.
Sincerely,
Pete Mazolewski, MD, FACS, USAR
Brian Hopkins, MD,
Mike deBoisblanc, MD, FACS, USAR
Not one person on the public comment said the BOS are doing a good job and more should be done to protect us.
wait so the board of soup
and the newscum
and now the CCCjokes
so who are we supposed to listen to
the grandstanding is hilarious and should be a tv show
like reno 911
the bungling bureaucrats of 94521
now there’s a way to make extra money for the county
staring the real david hoff as the hofmeister and ed norton as newscum
followed by betty white for pelosi and one of the baldwins for the ccchealth
So the state’s health official admitted that there is no data to support the claim that outdoor dining is risky. The reason for shutting down outdoor dining is so people will stay home.
https://la.eater.com/2020/12/1/21783612/outdoor-dining-data-restaurants-los-angeles-county-public-health-coronavirus-why-numbers
The joke is that 75% of all infections happen – you guessed it – in the home.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6944e1.htm
Seems to me that maybe we should encourage being outside!
Is it weird you’re referencing a link to a CDC article citing that “infections happened – you guessed it – in the home” .. then link to an article that SPECIFICALLY talks about only two cities within two states (Nashville, Tennessee and Marshfield, Wisconsin) from April to September of 2020. Even in the very first sentence of the summary, it states, “transmission estimates vary widely”. At last I checked, two cities in the US doesn’t equal the international status of what’s going on. There’s even a few more bits in the article if you read it citing how the data isn’t complete due to varying factors .. but you knew that, right?
If you’re going to cite something, at least understand what it says first. It might help your argument a bit more in the future. 😉
@ Joe Blo – yep, it cites two cities, but it’s still an official study by the CDC and it drives policy. They take the results from this study and apply it across the board. This 75% in the home infection statistic has been reported over and over – just google it.
Yup, they don’t want us congregatin’ over outdoor dinners because we might plot to overthrow ’em. 😉
I wish the Q&A with the doctor was instant, the current format allows for no follow up.
The answer about the emergency room capacity bouncing back and forth still doesn’t sit right with me.
As one of the commenters stated, we should have been building more capacity for the last 10 months, not reducing it.
The answer for the denominator being reduced and by wide numbers needs a better answer than –
“It gets sent to the state, and they determine it”
It’s non-sensical.
Well, a lot of medical professionals chose to stay home with their kids because none of the teachers are teaching and daycare is reduce. Thus, we have fewer people to man these bed. How are we supposed to increase capacity when the teachers are insanely delusional and refuse to do their jobs?
ICU stands for Intensive Care Units. ICU beds and Emergency Rooms are two different things.
I was there for most of it …
The doctor sounded like Trump and Newsom … ‘There is evidence’ but he would not expand on it. He also did not really answer any questions … “there are different opinions” was his response to the letter from the three docs. So you are saying that you are acting on opinions, not data or science … cause that is how I interpreted his answers.
Karen is still a disrespectful angry person.
I liked the Lawyer guy (Skylar?) and Candace’s attempt at a rebuttal. Not sure I believe her and I really do not think she answered the question. “It is not a 4th amendment issue’ was her rebuttal … okay, the lawyer guy presented a case, and that was her response … no case, nothing.
Not one person on that call told the board they were doing a good job, not one.
First of all: How does it effect your life, to make you this angry, if someone wears a mask in their vehicle?
Secondly: To answer to your question, one obvious answer is that people want to avoid touching their mask unnecessarily. Between errands, a person will keep their mask on, rather than leave a store, take off their mask, go to the next store put back on the mask, take it off, go to the next store… The less a person touches their mask, the more sterile it is.
Another obvious answer is that some people are ride share drivers, who are wearing a mask in between passengers, to keep their car more sterile. Or maybe they are food delivery people who have other people’s food in back seat of their car. Even if a meal is in a box, keeping the environment within the car as safe as possible is a good idea.
You never know where a person is going, and what they are doing in the day. All you see is a person in a car with a mask, with no other information. Keep in mind that people usually are driving a car because they are trying to accomplish a goal.
Wearing a mask in the car does keep them from licking the windows or picking their nose.
Natalie – while it might keep the mask cleaner, the minute you put it on and take a breath it’s no longer sterile.
I have a question that I don’t think the county health dept. has thought about. When they start giving out the vaccine to the general public, are the hospitals prepared for a possible influx of patients having a severe allergic reaction?
Good one Dawg. Now they will tell us that we have to continue wearing masks and be shut down to “flatten the curve” of people having a severe allergic reaction.
Anyone who thinks this is going to end is kidding themselves.
“I Wear My Face Mask in the Car” Music Video lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DDXG-dHugc
They want to virtue signal to everyone how they are saving life’s wearing their face mask alone by themselves in their car with their windows up lol
Was it rated R again? Did comrade Karen drop an F bomb again?
ONCE AGAIN: NOBODY is stopping you from cowering at home. Please Stop trying to ruin life for the rest of us.
What’s a shame is the people on this site who actually think that government cares abut them.
Ha ha ha. TIME TO WAKE UP.
You ain’t seen nothing yet…..2021 will be worse than 2020 because You REFUSED to speak up and stand up.
Anon very true stand up people before you have no freedoms left!
Follow the science…….A judge has ruled San Diego restaurants may open, as the Newsom minions were unable to provide any science or data to support the lock down. Oops……..
Not looking good, Nurse in Tennessee on TV after vaccine:
http://82.221.129.208/coronavaxnurse.mp4
https://www.newsweek.com/nurse-fainting-covid-vaccine-shot-ingredients-1555860
Does Dr Warne have a link to the science he uses to determine that in person dining is high risk? There’s a whole industry asking for receipts on this one since he says all decisions are science based.
It sounds like this isn’t the right person for the job then
This explanation still doesn’t explain the idiots walking around with masks in neighborhoods and riding on bicycles with not a person around them for a hundred yards.
Originally, we were clearly told not to touch the mask after it was in place because doing so might transfer the virus from our hands to the mask. Leaving it on while driving, or leaving it on for any reason really, is supposed to offer greater protection than taking it off and putting it back on.
There is always the possibility that they have numerous risk factors, someone in the car took their mask off at some point and the air is then possibly contaminated with bacteria and/or virus. They are unrelated, not from the same household, but sharing a ride, and so on.
I hope Governor Newsom mandates that everyone in our state must wear a mask while we are in our vehicles.
Two more serious reactions today to the Pfizer vaccine in two health care workers in Alaska.
@BORbeliever;
Two reactions out of how many injections? I’ll take the injection anytime.
@Tugboat,
2 serious reactions out of 144 vaccines. One person had a history of allergic reactions but the other one didn’t. One ended up in the ICU.
It’s absolutely your right to take the vaccine…go for it! I’m waiting.
Glad to see Fibbing Mike is at it again.
https://www.redding.com/story/news/2020/05/29/no-bay-area-hospital-has-not-seen-a-years-worth-suicides-coronavirus/5279780002/
It appears that the “real” medical community, those that actually work at hospitals and care for people, are finally weighing in on the false science being spewed by CoCo County Health and our Governor. Even the California State Health Director couldn’t come up with a good reason for banning outdoor dining.
Let Freedom Ring!
The economic destruction and personal desperation of folks without a job is being ignored. We have never recommended economic shutdown with so little proof of its absolute requirement. With minimal facts and no real supporting scientific data we are destroying our community this has to stop we need to fight back open back up and embrace the realities that we must embrace and move forward with good treatments and vaccines.
Be Prepared not Scared. Shutdown the virus, Spread the information. If you ever wanted to know more about treatments, and suppliments for Covid, here is a repository of current daily updated scientific peer reviewed studies. The link below is vitamin D3 and the site has several more options and the studies to evaluate effectiveness, it is Shocking. Stay informed Stay safe.
https://c19vitamind.com/
@ Natalie – We know a fool when we see one. Stop trying to make excuses for Face Mask Fools! We see plenty of young people in their car by themselves with masks on….give us all a break; it’s completely RIDICULOUS!
The John Muir docs have some good questions. Particularly about schools and outdoor activities. But in some cases they are ignoring the specific features of this year’s pandemic.
There may be false positives, but if that alone was sufficient to out us in a restrictive tier, how were our numbers so low in October? The trend over time since then is way too drastic an increase to be explained by more tests plus a false positive rate. We are testing more, but not nearly THAT much more.
As to ICU capacity, I suppose it is not about whether 85% or 100% capacity is so bad in itself. It’s one thing to run at surge capacity when you know pretty well how the demand is going to go – like in a flu season. It might a better or worse flu year, but by December they have a pretty good sense of how bad January and February could get.
On the other hand, if you are at 100% capacity and it looks like you could easily double and quadruple your Covid patient intake in the next few weeks… that’s a different story. 85% is no biggie if you know it won’t go up very much more. It’s a bad sign if you have reason to believe it’s the start of a much larger wave of patients needing hospitalization. By the time you are overburdened, it isn’t going to get better for weeks.
All that said, health officials still need to use evidence when shutting crud down, not just gut feeling or political calculation. And they need to make the case honestly and clearly to the public, and put pressure on politicians to support people and businesses that are being restricted.
John Muir head of trauma surgery canned for questioning ridiculous COVID mandates. Dr. DeBoisblanc is a veteran combat trauma surgeon with battlefield experience in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq. Over the years he has saved COUNTLESS trauma victims. He needs our support. Read the article and see if you agree. John Muir actions are reminiscent of the Soviet era:
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/contra-costa-co-doctor-says-he-was-reassigned-after-questioning-covid-19-restrictions/2427600/
You are no longer allowed to question the party line regarding Covid.
I guess he’s lucky he just lost his title instead of disappearing in the middle of the night. That’s probably coming though.
Led wrote “We are testing more, but not nearly THAT much more”
There is a direct correlation between the number of tests and number of cases. Let’s say the positivity rate is 5%. If you do 100 tests then you will find five new cases of COVID-19. If you do 1000 tests then you will find 50 new cases of COVID-19. If you do 10,000 tests then you will find 500 new cases of COVID-19.
You also have symptomatic people walking into doctor’s offices. That triggers a test to confirm COVID-19. The positivity rate, hospitalization rate, and death rate for this population will always be much higher than the general population where random screening likely is finding asymptomatic cases that will not need medical attention.
Unfortunately, health authorities have never reported on the groups of people they are testing and the results for each group.
There’s a third group, close contacts of those confirmed with COVID-19. That group should have a higher than the community positivity rate.
Most of the testing seems to be community screening and so there’s a nearly direct correlation between the number of tests and number of cases.
yet they say your immunity only lasts for 3 months
i guess we see the goal of vaccines is to bleed us dry of our tax money
since they will mandate we have a current shot to do anything
No responsible person says that it only lasts for 3 months. By now it’s pretty clear that immunity is pretty strong for 6+ months and very possibly much longer.
Yet they say? Who is that? Random just stop your lies and let the rest of us heal. Thanks
Potato
lies,lies,lies,yeeaa!!
lies,lies lies yeaaa!!
you should just use this as your standard SAME COMMENT on every post you disagree with
Another arrogant County bureaucrat totally ignoring what his own John Muir physicians are telling him.
It’s also easy to forget you have it on when you get back to your car from shopping.
Will be like Nazi Germany,if you cant prove you got vaccinated,youll have to wear a star on your shirt and be an outcast.A vaccine certificate will be harder to counterfeit than real money,and making or having a fake one will get you locked up and immediately released due to covid jail dangers,and all felonies will be reduced to infractions and everyone can do community service,and there will be so many doing it that the county and city workers wont need a jib anymore.and they are all laid off.
This using the ICU metric is a contrivance or convenient way to shutdown Christmas and New Years. Is a way “they” don’t get blamed.
As holidays pass would not be surprised when, yet another day glow method is “discovered” by those “in charge”.
A pair of panties stretched over ones face counts as a mask, right?
Asking for a friend.