This is the COVID-19 daily update on Claycord.com:
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- 1,112 active cases of COVID-19 in Contra Costa County.
- 200 new cases of COVID-19 in Contra Costa County since yesterday (today’s total – yesterday’s total = number of new cases)
- 4,717 people have fully recovered from COVID-19 in Contra Costa.
- 3 deaths since yesterday (county total = 102).
- 71 of the 102 deaths were in long-term care facilities.
- There are currently 16 active outbreaks of COVID-19 at Contra Costa County long-term care facilities.
- 62 of the 102 deaths have been people over the age of 81.
- Only 1 person under the age of 50 (they were in the 31-40 age group) has died from COVID-19 in Contra Costa County.
- Nobody under the age of 17 has died from COVID-19 in the State of California.
- 3,331 tests were conducted yesterday in Contra Costa County. The seven day positive average is 5.3%.
- 552 homeless people are currently placed in motel/hotel rooms in Contra Costa County. Placements are approved for homeless people who are awaiting COVID-19 test results or those who are considered at high risk.
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PRIOR DAY TOTALS:
The population of Contra Costa County is about 1.1-million.
If you belive the numbers reported here…
5.3% of the people of Contra Costa County have the bug.
.0092% of the people of Contra Costa County have died from the bug.
I am sad that people have died from this virus.
Anytime a life is lost it is a terribly sad event.
1/2 correct percentages
Grade: 50%
Letter Grade: F
#claycordcantmath
Glad I don’t live in a old folks home. Why aren’t they protecting the old people?
They’re trying but our federal government won’t take an infectious pandemic seriously.
And people keep saying stuff like “I don’t need to wear a mask, *I* feel safe.”
I don’t use the mask. And I thought it was a couple governors who didn’t follow the federal guidelines on nursing homes..huh
There is an employee at Tampico Terrace in Walnut Creek posting stories on social media of herself at large gatherings with strangers. I and a friend have contacted management with proof — I’ve yet to receive an email reply 8 days later. My friend called today and they said they’d forward the information to a higher up, but they didn’t sound very convincing. They are endangering the people that need them the most and don’t care.
Greg
The federal government is not who only has long term care workers get tested only once every thirty days. The federal government gives states everything available to give.
@Ricardo – the federal government has sent so many mixed messages that they have empowered people to do whatever they want.
@sam – if you want to care for the elderly, then wear your mask. You may not be around them but the person you infect may work directly with them.
Wow …. yet another study saying more people infected than thought. 6-24 times as much, but most sites only 10.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html
So if we multiple 5731 (total cases) by 6, we get 34,386 infected.
99 people divided by 34386 = 0.3% percent death rate. The annual flu is 0.2% per the CDC. Wow … maybe not as deadly as we are continuing to be told by Newscum/Drump/Breed and all the other politicians who have decided to make this political.
@ Parent
The case fatality rate of a virus is not a fixed number and not an innate characteristic. The rate varies depending on the ability to provide medical treatment to those who are sick which, fortunately, has not become a problem in CCC thus far, due to the relatively slow spread relative to places that saw rapid spread, such as New York.
Speaking of New York, let’s do the same extrapolation for the state of NY as you performed for CCC.
32,218 deaths as of this comment.
412,889 positive cases as of this comment
Scale cases x6 = 2,477,334 probable cases
Probable Case fatality rate = 1.3%
That is 6.5 times more deadly than the flu. If that fatality rate was representative of the country as a whole, 1.3% of the population is over 4 million Americans.
A similar situation could still happen to in CCC. The Bay Area has slowed the spread and avoided hospital overloads that magnify the risk of widespread death. But to equate the annual flu fatality rates in a “normal” year to the coronavirus fatality rate that is being reduced by aggressive, active measures (SIP, social distancing, mask wearing, etc) isn’t very accurate or appropriate.
If you want to make the comparison apples-to-apples, the US would need to behave exactly the same as a regular ‘flu-only’ year, and then compare the death numbers at the end. An impossible scenario, because the piles of body bags (see again, NY) would have tipped us off, and our behavior would have changed regardless.
Fat Cat
So you are talking NY, the one with the highest fatality rate for the entire US … wow. I might want to consider the average which when you divide the deaths by the known cases (a bit over 4M), that would give you under 0.6% as an average for the entire United States. That is three times deadlier than the flu, yes, but less deadlier than many of our past ‘pandemics’.
Your 1.3% is not real .. that is fear mongering. Are you running for office somewhere, is that why your percentage and data is all over the place, incorrectly I might add? Your comment about the body bags, wow … did you get that from Fox or CNN or Wikipedia?
For my own estimates I have been using 2.5 times the number of active cases but then subtract 1 times as those cases are self-isolating. For example, let’s say the county detects and confirms 1,000 active cases. My estimate is 2.5 times that or 2,500 active cases in the county. The county provide instructions to the 1,000 it knows about on how to self-isolate at home. That leaves another 1,500 “in the wild” within the county.
My reasoning for 2.5 vs. a higher number such as 6, 10, or 24 mentioned in news articles is that the number of cases in the county has not been growing that fast. In April and June the number was flat. The numbers started to rise in June, likely triggered by Memorial Day gatherings, and by the end of June and into early July was surging, seemingly out of control.
Oddly, the surge stopped on July 6. This has puzzled me. I’m wondering if we hit an upper limit on the number of cases we could intake into the system per day. A virus does not simply decide to stop replicating out of control on its own. It’ll stop when it runs out of hosts. I have seen an increase of people wearing masks. That may well be what’s making it harder for the virus to find new hosts.
I calculated 2.5 as the multiplier as 35 percent of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic. Another 25 percent of COVID-19 cases are so mild that people don’t call the doctor. 35% plus 25% is 60%. The remaining 40% of the COVID-19 cases are getting noticed, confirmed by doctors, and reported to the county. If you take the 40% that was noticed/confirmed and multiply it by 2.5 then you get the total number of cases. Or, you can multiply it by 1.5 to get the number of cases (the 60%) out in the wild. The 40% is self-isolating at home and so does not contribute to the spread.
I updated https://imgur.com/a/RSQK6hP to add the current graph of the number of active cases vs. the number of tests.
@ parent
You make my point for me.
“I might want to consider the average which when you divide the deaths by the known cases (a bit over 4M), that would give you under 0.6% as an average for the entire United States. That is three times deadlier than the flu, yes, but less deadlier than many of our past ‘pandemics’.”
So the virus is twice as deadly as you were claiming in your previous post, if you use the average. And it is twice as deadly even with the aggressive interventions that have taken place across the country since March. Without these interventions, the case fatality rate would very very likely be much higher as more areas would have seen overwhelmed hospitals and healthcare systems.
I invoke NY not because I believe that 1.3% of the entire population will die, but it is clear that if the virus is not appropriately contained, other localities could suffer a similar fate. Which is why it is particularly brash to downplay the danger of the virus. It could mean that more people will die. Your insistence that politicians are merely politicizing this event is incredibly short sighted, bordering on conspiratorial. Why did nations around the world react similarly? Everyone was operating to execute the same political agenda? Including both Newsom and Trump, who you mentioned explicitly?
And there *were* body bags with nowhere to go in NY at its peak; maybe you are unaware of this. Refrigerated trailers had to be brought in to store the victims until the morgues had room to take them.
The Fat Cat
You are right, I deserve the failing grade.
The correct % makes my case even stronger.
Thank you.
Case for what? Were you presenting an argument? The only thesis I see is that “Anytime a life is lost it is a terribly sad event.” A conclusion I wholeheartedly agree with, but the proper percentages neither support nor refute that sentiment.
Thank you again.