This is the new COVID-19 daily update on Claycord.com:
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- 649 active cases of COVID-19 in Contra Costa County.
- 92 new cases of COVID-19 in Contra Costa County since yesterday.
- 2,183 tests were conducted in Contra Costa County since yesterday.
- 1 death since yesterday.
- Only 1 person under the age of 50 (they were in the 31-40 age group) has died from COVID-19 in Contra Costa County.
- 50 of the 73 deaths were in long-term care facilities.
- There are currently 7 outbreaks of COVID-19 at Contra Costa County long-term care facilities.
PRIOR DAY CITY TOTALS:
The population in Contra Costa County is 1.1-million.
Data reported to CCHS as of 6/26/2020 @ 11:30am:
2,676 confirmed cases in CCC with 73 deaths = 2.73% death rate.
Among cases with a confirmed outcome (resulting in either recovery or death), the fatality rate is currently 3.60%.
(73 deaths. 1,954 recovered. 2,027 cases overall)
The problem with the math presented here is that ~40% of the people who get CV are asymptomatic, have no idea they got it, and have no reason to get tested. It also doesn’t take into account that CC Healthcare own statistics state that of the 78 deaths only 1 was under 50. The conclusions are thus skewed, creates undue alarm for anyone under 50, and don’t present a true picture of what is really going on.
Testing will create more cases. We didn’t Shleter in Place for cases. We sheltered for ICU beds. THAT is the statistic we should be following: the % of ICU beds taken by Covid. The number of cases with massive testing capability should be going up. We are still finding out how the enemy actually operates.
With that said, yes – keeping our germs to ourselves lowers the transmission rate. Masks make sense for all of us but especially for our grandparents. If you won’t wear it for yourself, wear it for them.
Wear your mask in public. Stay 6 feet apart. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Don’t go out when you’re sick. If we had ALL done this over the past few months, we’d be in a lot better spot right now.
It’s not that difficult.
I trust that the people of Claycord can do ALL of this going forward. Thanks in advance for being responsible 👍
Couldn’t have said it better. I wish some of my neighbors followed these directions from day one but rules weren’t made for them. Simple task!
Another protest planned today in Walnut Creek,
More cases will be coming!
my bad. The Protest is tomorrow.
Countrywood Shopping Center?
Avoid the news, do not believe the politicians, follow the science and the actual data = happy life and one that is not panicked of fears SARS2/COVID19.
The Quarantine was not and is not necessary …
# of Americans infected = 20 million per CDC. That might be slightly above the known cases … This article is from June 25th. So with that number in mind, the mortality rate is 0.6%. hmmm ….
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-covid-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134
John Hopkins says that the test positive rate is slightly rising though we did over 600K a couple of days ago in the United States. We saw a low of about 3% and we are now just under 5%, but our test pool is significantly higher.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
Just food for thought. It may not all be about lock yourself up alone, bathe in sanitizer solution while wearing a mask.
I’m not fearful. I’m responsible. I’m helping to save YOUR life and that of YOUR loved ones. You’re welcome.
Be a responsible member of society, not a spreader.
@parent
The problem with your assessment that the quarantine (SIP) was not and is not necessary is that the mortality rate of a virus is not a fixed quantity that is inherent to the virus. The mortality rate is affected by measures taken against transmission of the virus, ability to treat the virus, and capacity of healthcare facilities, among myriad variables.
Assuming that your 0.6% rate is in the ballpark, which it seems is reasonable, that number would be much much higher if we had not sheltered in place, thus reducing transmission, thus reducing the load on the hospital systems, and now it seems, finding drugs that may reduce the mortality in hospitalized patients. This phenomenon was branded as “Flattening the Curve” and I cannot believe that at this stage anyone needs this explained to them.
Stay home when possible.
Stay 6 ft apart.
Wear your mask in public.
Do your part for the sake of your community.
@Bernie,
What you’re advocating is not responsibility.
A responsible person would look past the fear mongering headlines and analyze the numbers themselves. Doing so would reveal a death rate not much different than the flu.
A responsible person would contemplate the consequences of a continued lock-down on our economy, our freedoms and the future of our kids.
What you’re advocating is an act of mindless conformity to a proto-authoritarian state.
What you’re advocating is cowardice.
@ Yoyo Hop
Exercising rational caution is not cowardice.
And while individuals looking at coronavirus statistics is good for public awareness, the reason that we have public health institutions is so that professionals can assess information and make decisions that laymen are not qualified to make (as evidenced by many users on this site who cannot properly calculate a simple percentage week in and week out).
You suppose that the death rate is “not much different from the flu”. What would you quantify as not much different? Is a 0.5% higher mortality rate not much different? Because that is the difference of nearly a million lives in the US alone if half of people here get COVID-19 before there are significant advances in treatment.
On top of this, the mortality rate is directly impacted by actions taken to reduce transmission and hospitalizations (read: shelter in place, mask wearing, staying 6ft apart). So to say that the death rate is comparable to the flu, even if that was knowable and correct at this point in time, inherently ignores the mitigation actions taken. With no safeguards, the mortality rate would be higher, and the idea moving forward is to not find out what the unmitigated mortality rate is.
“Conformity” or, as most of us call it, “following prudent advice of public health officials” is the path to restoring the economy, because the economy cannot thrive unless the risk of the virus is significantly reduced.
@Fat Cat
The reason we have a democracy is so that public officials, like those that create public health policy, can be held accountable for policies.
I’m not sure if you’ve tried to contact these officials lately. I have. I was given the run around by a slew of middlemen, who even refused to give out the email address of their superiors. I was told I’d have to Google it.
The webcam public health briefings are a joke, where questions from the public are ignored unless they allow Dr Farnitano to stay on message and rehash a talking point.
This is not how a democracy should be run. And when the democratic process is so obviously broke, it is cowardice to not speak out, but to instead spew the slogans and talking points of those that would obfuscate that process.
The layman needs little math to count the number of people that he knows who are sick. Look at the stats. It is around 1 in 500. In other words most people don’t know a single person that has been sick. We don’t need to defer to government authority to understand that a perpetual state of emergency is not warranted. Our lives should not be put on hold for an indefinite amount of time without us having any say in the matter.
It is your right to agree with policies of the health officials. But those who disagree with the policies should have ability to question those officials.
When we no longer have that ability, when we no longer have transparency, we no longer have a democracy.
Your comments about mitigation are unsubstantiated and lack nuance.
We have seen many mitigation strategies that have backfired, contaminated masks, toxic hand sanitizer, sick people being sent back into nursing homes, etc.
And yet nowhere have we seen anything like the hypothetical million lives lost that you seem to be referring to. The impact has been drastically less than what was hyped a few months ago. And we’ve seen that even in countries with no lock-downs, there was no continual exponential growth.
Your comment that “the economy cannot thrive unless the risk of the virus is significantly reduced.” is meaningless because what and would constitute a “significant reduction” has never been quantified.
Even the stats of who is sick and what counts as a covid hospitalization or death have been obscured. Dr Farnitano was directly asked if anyone who dies with covid, has died of covid, regardless of other health issues. He refused to give an answer.
That your solution is for the layman to quietly conform, because he could never comprehend the truth anyway, is a truly disturbing suggestion. It is also the common justification for tyranny.
@ Yoyo Hop
I understand your concern about holding public officials accountable, and it is indeed an important part of a democracy.
Where I diverge is your assessment that because you and those around you don’t personally know anyone that is sick, that there is no need for any of the measures in place. This is a catch-22 – if there were no measures in place, there would very likely be many more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, and measures would be needed – if measures are in place and mitigating the spread as intended, then you don’t know anyone that is sick. Your logic is especially flawed given the potential for asymptomatic carriers – you may in fact know people who have had the virus, but never showed any symptoms.
And I don’t enjoy putting things in my life on hold any more than you do. But I also don’t want my parents getting sick, my grandparents getting sick, or anyone in my community getting sick if I can help it.
As far as my comments on mitigation, you say that my comments are unsubstantiated? Are you refuting that the mortality rate is influenced by treatment strategies and mitigation measures?
And that leads to my exact point that no, we have not see a million dead – precisely because we have taken precautions such as the shutdowns, social distancing, and mask wearing to name a few. You claim that this is about the same as the flu, and I am saying that a relatively small sounding change of half of one percent in the mortality rate relative to the flu would be a massive difference in the death toll. And that is why we have mitigation strategies in place, despite you not personally knowing a sick person.
Yes, some mitigation strategies have been flawed, the most concerning to me, as you listed was allowing covid postive patients into long term care facilities to relieve stress on hospitals. It is unclear to me how common this practice is in this area or around the country, and I fully agree that the practice should be eliminated. However, just because some mitigation practices have failed does not mean that social distancing, hand washing, and mask wearing should not be fully pursued, and that those that are able to stay home continue to do so in light of the recent surge in cases both in this area and around the nation.
Yes, “significant reduction” is vague, because it is going to be incredibly difficult to quantify. But I can guarantee you that when an area is experiencing a severe outbreak, a majority of people will not be going out for brunch or the mall regardless of whether there is a stay at home order in place or not.
And I am not at all saying that a layman should conform because of an impossibility of comprehension. There are plenty of individuals that do not work in public health that are able to observe available information and reach rational conclusions. But at some point, there has to be a level of deference to those whose line of work is within public health and epidemiology. This deference is not absolute, but in this case, there is a public health emergency and people are being told to social distance, wear a mask, and wash their hands. Given the information available to any layman, these are not unreasonable requests, and certainly not tyrannical in nature.
@ Fat Cat
I think I would understand your position better if you could define your terms. What is your definition of a pandemic?
Bill Gates and his cronies ran a pandemic simulation, in the Fall of 2019, called Event 201.
In that simulation they accounted for about 50 million dead. We’re about 2 orders of magnitude below that right now.
The Spanish flu of 1918, killed at least 15 million, out of a much smaller world population.
Saying that the Covid numbers are so small because of mitigation is observably untrue.
Situations with drastically less mitigation, like Sweden and the Diamond Princess Cruise ship still didn’t see numbers approaching either the Spanish Flu or Bill Gates’ timely (wink, wink) simulation.
We’re simultaneously told that no one has a natural immunity to Covid, but many will be asymptomatic. Isn’t that a contradiction?
Isn’t hospitalizations and deaths a more meaningful indicator of the true danger of Covid?
So what is your metric for determining a pandemic?
How bad does a flu have to get before we willingly trash the constitution, our economy, our society?
All these. Protesters could that be the cause of the spike Interesting no one wants to talk about that
Not true. everyday some person who wants someone to blame brings it up.
Where are the 7 long term care facilities?
I know one of them was the San Miguel Villa in Concord. The others were in Hayward and a number of them were owned by the same company/business and there were a lot of inappropriate living conditions. People who staffed weren’t tested appropriately/enough, they broke quite a number of protocols, etc. It’s bad.
So, 2200 tests, 92 positive.
So that’s a bit better than three months ago when they were testing 300-500 a day and getting 25.
Actually, the ratios you present are nearly identical. Based on these there is no change in the positive test rate at all.
@BernieM I agree 100%. Maybe, just maybe that’s why the death rate is only 2.73%
We are running 2-3 times the daily rate of the start of June. Clayton was flat at 5 cases for many weeks until the protestors came to town. Now it is 9. What is the contact tracing showing with respect to the safety of hanging out in crowds of hundreds?
Your source is with the Washington State Health Department. If he values his job he can’t say anything about infected protesters.
Stop having parties and stop having protests, how hard is that really? People are so incredibly stupid, it’s unbelievable
I totally agree. We have been invited to 2 different birthday parties within the last 3 weeks. I could not believe it!! Of course we declined, but I know those gatherings had about 30+ guests each. How irresponsible.
its all the dumb virtue signaling protesters who huff and puff even if wearing a mask it only does so much if your all crowded together its not going to help much as air escapes/pulls in on the sides of the mask. Hope they feel really good when they end up killing grandma,grandpa, mommy or daddy because they wanted to feel apart of something and go join the herd like sheep.
like 🙂
Interesting because currently the only covid contract tracing apps I can find on Google Play are not for Washington State. They are for North and South Dakota and Rhode Island. There seem to be a number of them on the Apple App Store but not all are for the US. Seems that young folks like iPhones more than Android phones.
There is zero evidence that the protesters caused any cases, much less a spike. The protests are an outdoor activity with little to no sustained close contact.
The highest risk would be if any groups of protesters carpooled or took public transportation to or from a protest.
The spike or surge seems to be coming from social events combined with re-opening the economy. This is increasing the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community. That increases the chance infection for older members of a family plus employees of long term care facilities. Once it gets to the older people the hospital and death numbers go up.
I respectfully disagree, as social distancing is key, and the many pictures and videos and my personal observance of the local protestors showed little regard for those guidelines. Every SF Bay Area Health Department agrees with me.
I have no issues with people expressing their First Amendment rights. It is a great feature of our country and we are blessed to have it. Just exercise personal responsibility while doing it. Seems ironic that while (rightly) protesting to protect one group of individuals they put another at risk. Think about it.
@Freedom Loving Dad – Being outside lowers the risk of transmission a great deal. [1] is a study that looked at the various venues for transmission of the virus from one person to another. Of the 7,324 identified cases only one occurred outdoors.
Picking up enough of a viral load to become infected seems to take about 15 minutes of sustained indoor contact with a contagious person.
That same study also found that COVID-19 was also unusual when compared with other viruses in that when transmission occurs that it tends to infect a small number of people. Events where ten or more people became infected are quite rare. I believe that goes back to the viral load issue. If we inhale a few viruses our immune systems are nearly always successful in fighting it off. If hundreds or thousands of viruses are able to attack us at once then that tilts things in the viruses’ favor.
The risk of transmission while milling about outdoors in a crowd is not zero but it’s very low. That’s why I’m skeptical that there would be a surge or spike of cases as the result of the protests.
Social distancing combined with being outdoors is still the safest approach.
[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf