Contra Costa is now reporting 707 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the county, which is 14 more than yesterday.
The county has also confirmed there have now been 22 coronavirus-related deaths in Contra Costa.
Below is a city-by-city breakdown of coronavirus cases for Contra Costa County:
RELATED STORY FROM SUNDAY: 693 Confirmed Cases Of Coronavirus In Contra Costa County – 8 More Than Yesterday – 1 More Death
Just trying to put some of this into perspective since some folks believe we should wear a mask, goggles, gloves and never have human contact again or leave our house until 2022.
Interesting tidbits of information to me.
1. If you take into consideration that only sick and the hypochondriacs are tested, we are still seeing about a 7% infection rate of those tested and about a 0.06% county infection rate. If we use the conservative side (50) of the Stanford study, which some experts are challenging, we are seeing about a 3% infection rate in our community. But even the challengers are saying that multiplier might be only 20/25 times instead of 50-85, so either way, the infection rate is higher than being reported. Based on studies challenger’s numbers, we should be seeing at a minimum of over 14,000 people infected. If you use the 85 times, we see over 60K people infected.
2. 22 deaths out of the tested population is 0.2% and out of the ‘confirmed infected population is 3.1% but is only 0.002% of the Contra Costa County. Of course, if you look at the 14,000 number cited above, that brings the mortality rate down to 0.15% What was the annual flu death rate again? And this does even take into consideration that falsely reported COVID deaths because I do not know if CCC is doing that. I can only work the numbers provided.
3. About 5% of folks needs to be hospitalized. 35 sounds like a good size number, but is 35 people in our hospitals that overwhelming to them? If so, we are vastly unprepared for a large scale event such as an earthquake or even a smaller one like a plan crash, or even a Greyhound bus rolling over on the freeway. Yes, I know, we are talking ventilators, oxygen supplies etc … but I cannot imagine, and I would be embarrassed if I was a hospital manager, that a single hospital could not absorb an influx of 35 patients.
4. So we have tested less than 1% of our counties population. Is that because only sick people are asking for testing? Is the lack of testing because we are not aggressive with our testing methods or because we do not have folks coming in for testing?
Curiosity on my part … I will wait for the naysayers to challenge all of this.
Are you going to put a wall around the county? If not you need to look at this on a larger scale to be relevant.
Deaths FROM coronavirus must be separated from deaths WITH coronavirus, or data on any scale doesn’t mean a damned thing. The 3,700 COVID-19 deaths added last week in New York, sending their state death toll past 10,000? None of them had tested positive.
We have only tested 2% of our nation’s adult population.
It’s clearly because of a lack of testing due to a lack of nasal swabs, media kits to transport those nasal swabs, and a lack of reagents. Governor’s all over the nation have shouted this till they’re blue in the face.
As I’ve repeatedly posted previously, our lab system in this country is highly de-centralized. What does that mean exactly? It means that Roche tests only run on Roche instrumentation. Thermo Fisher test kits only run on Thermo Fisher diagnostic platforms. Abbott Labs test kits only run on Abbott platforms. And more often than not, the test kits are NOT UNIFORM nor are the reagents that are used to process the samples.
The States (and labs) need the Federal Government to set up a Command & Control Center for the Logistics of these test components cited above. For some reason, Pence and his team haven’t wanted to get involve. The lack of leadership in this regard makes us look like a Third World Country.
It’s disgusting.
Ozzie, no wall needed. Only need that if you believe all the lies/hype. Wait, do you?
Roll, could not agree anymore! Well said!
Mike, I don’t want to be tested, neither does any of my extended family, and we have a. BiG extended family. Nor do any of my neighbors I have spoken to and neither do most of my colleagues. So yes, there is a shortage of tests. Yes, proprietary property does exist, can you imagine how much longer it would have taken for those companies to come to ONE agreed upon standard? You are in diagnostics, you should know that! So I challenge that the only reason we have tested 2% is not just because we don’t have the test kits, it is because many people who don’t need/want to be tested.
Parent then why spend time analyzing data that is meaningless if you believe that. Unless you don’t.
Epidemiologists follow populations. They study how large groups move from unexposed to exposed, from control to case. The larger the sample, the higher the case number. The higher the case number the more precise the results. When the statistics breakdown at the individual level, don’t blame the statistics. Or the epidemiologists.
Ozzie
I do not think the hard data is meaningless. I think the gross misrepresentation has been pretty meaningless, hence my desire to read it.
It would be nice to know how many deaths were actually for healthy people with no co-morbidities. Since all non-murder deaths are being tagged as COVID deaths, we (the public) will never really know the actual number.So many stories from families whose loved one died not from COVID but was tagged as one. Also, to answer “parents” question above. I know several people who work in John Muir and Kaiser – they say it’s slow and not overwhelmed.
Interesting article
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Hospital-analysis-Nearly-half-of-COVID-19-15213495.php
It goes tangentially with your point because it discusses comorbidity. In short, at least 9 out of 19 patients had at least one pre-existing medical condition.
It seems the shelter in place/lockdown is no longer a means to an end, but has taken on a life of its own. Obscure public officials such as county medical officers now have vast power over our everyday lives. Out of a county of 1.1 Million people we have 35 people in the hospital. Yes 22 have died and there is no acceptable level of death. But can we stop every death? How many have died in our county from the flu? From smoking? From car accidents? It is time to press reset and look at this from a fresh perspective. Protect the elderly, those with compromised immune systems, let’s have social distancing for a time, but let’s not extend this lockdown past May 3.
The journalist asked Stalin again, “What makes you think you can starve and torture and kill your people and
they won’t rise up against you?”
Stalin then reached down and picked up one of the chickens and held it tight under his arm so it could not move.
Stalin then continued in reply to the journalist’s question as calm and as confident as before. He said, “We
have more grain because we have nationalized farming and so we can sell the grain for capital in order to
build factories to produce the things the people need.” As he spoke he began to rip the feathers off the
chickens back in great handfuls.
He continued, “The people have need of many things that we are now giving them.” The poor bird
squawked and screeched in agony. Stalin’s grasp tightened. His iron grip held the bird firm as he calmly
turned to the journalist and spoke. “It is a testament to the ability of man in this modern age that through
the state we have overcome the individual weaknesses of greed and selfishness that have kept us from
solving our problems.”
The journalist stared in horror as Stalin savaged the chicken. The bird nearly limp, convulsed slightly as
Stalin placed it back on the ground. It staggered clumsily away. Stalin reached into his pocket for a handful
of grain and continued on as before to feed the chickens who flocked around him.
Stalin, identifying the wounded chicken he had just damaged creeping back toward the edge of the flock to
peck at the bits of grain remaining on the ground, reached again into his jacket pocket and pulled out a
fresh handful of grain. He knelt down a bit and held out his hand toward the injured animal. The bird
looked for a moment, cocked its head to the slide a bit, and then timidly step toward Stalin. In a moment, it
was eating the food right out of the hand that minutes before had torn the feathers right off it’s back.
Stalin dropped the remaining grain on the ground stood and turned toward the journalist. “Did that answer your question?” Stalin said.
jp5 air & Parent nailed it…we have been sold a pitcher of warm spit…I wonder why…politpanick ?
Trump: Follow these guidelines to reopen your States.
Michigan: We are and don’t have the tests to reopen.
Trump: Liberate Michigan.
The proof is in the testing details and percentages; provide truth and not boasts that there is adequate testing available. Until you do we don’t believe you.
So we are going into May soon and there is still no plan from the top to get testing (not even a vaccine) but testing. Something we know how to do already, out to the masses? We’ve “stimulated” everything in the country to the tune of 4 Trillion? I’ve lost count. But our leader can’t utilize his power to get tests to everybody so we can at least KNOW.
Ozzie, back on March 13th Trump made a speech in which he said that there would be a National Covid Website where anyone could go to learn how they could get tested, and moreover, ANYONE could get tested. He said that many great American companies were going to do the testing, like at Walmart, Walgreens, Target, and CVS.
It never happened.
He lied.
@Mike Wagner Trump did not lie. Perhaps it was his plan, but he later found he couldn’t make it happen. Perhaps he spoke too soon. He may have found out he had been overly optimistic and it would not be possible. There could be many explanations as to why it did not go as he expected. He was also attempting to allay the nations fears, so he may have been trying to paint a more rosy picture than the experts had given him. From what I have gathered as your take on it, he should have come running out all wild eyed like Newsom screaming, “We’re all gonna die.”
Herd immunity time.
Bob, what would be the acceptable death rate for you for taking that route?
If this shutdown continues for to long the death rate for causes other than the virus will have a higher death rate than the virus itself. Calls to suicide lines has already increased.
@Mike:
“Bob, what would be the acceptable death rate for you for taking that route?”
The same or similar to that of the flu. Of course, when dying WITH a Coronavirus infection is counted as COVID death, even in the absence of symptoms, and presumptive COVID in the absence of a positive test, we’ll never reach an accurate death rate. And without further government over reach by way of mandatory testing, we’ll never get a truly accurate rate of infection.
FYI: The poster child for “herd immunity” is Sweden.
They have yet to order any lockdown amid the pandemic and as a result have seen 14,777 cases so far and 1,580 deaths from the virus. That’s nearly 9X more than Norway (with half the population) and nearly 17X that of Finland (which has a population similar to Norway’s).
And Sweden’s infection cases has yet to plateau.
The curve has flattened and the arc is aiming downward. COVID is harming fewer than the deadly, annual flu. Time to lift the bans and get back to work.
But California has already sent $495 million (a 50% down payment) to Chinese automaker BYD to manufacture protective face masks. It will be interesting to see what’s next.
do you have any support for your statement?
@JWB
Yes. The CoCo Health Department Coronavirus website. You agree the testing frequency has increased, yes? In other words we’re testing more people today than a few weeks ago.
According to the graphs on their site the peak for new cases reported per day peaked on April 3 with 49. Then went way down for a week. Then to 41 on 4/13. Then dropped way down again. Now it’s down to 13.
We flattened the curve and it’s clearly remaining down. Time to drop the government overreach and open businesses.
What about people that work outside the county? Or people who work inside the county that might come in from regions with higher rates of infection? For an accurate assessment we have to look regionally rather than only at the county numbers.
Also I agree, the numbers here look good and are starting to improve; however, we need testing and contract tracing before we can just open up. We know in business as normal the number of new infections grows and we can undo the progress that has been made within about a week. Therefore other mitigation measures need to be in place (like testing & contact tracing for isolation) before we can reasonably remove the social distancing. I have heard CoCo has been hiring contact tracers to prepare for reopening, so we are getting there – hopefully soon if the infection numbers continue to look good and not too many people ***ed it up by ignoring the shelter-in-place orders these last weekends.
so where do you find “COVID is harming fewer than the deadly annual flu”? That was your quote.
I Googled it for you (Google, it’s a search engine):
COVID-19: Approximately 171,249 deaths reported worldwide, 42,364 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 21, 2020
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide, up to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Anything else you need me to do for you? Time to lift the bans and get back to work.
wow that’s so impressive. I had never heard of Google. Now again, you are comparing COVID-19 deaths for about six weeks and people staying at home. And according to Trump he believes that up to 2.2 M people could have died in the US without social distancing.
And I save you from another google activity but 2.2 M is a little bit more than 42,346.
So to answer your question no, you don’t need to do anything for me, but maybe for yourself you could start using your brain next time before you post?
Just FYI Face Mask Ordinances are unconstitutional and they will be fought in court and found so., costing the county allot of court time and money…they will find out the hard way. Because no one is going to pay anything…and tell the judges to go ahead and lock them up. Since they have made room in jails now.
What courts???
The dingbats shut those down, too.
@Bob:
Matters deemed urgent or important to the public interest are being heard via telephonic appearances, or on an ex parte basis.
Using the county figures posted above, the kill rate is over 3% of those reported infected (including recovered).
22 divided by 707 X 100 = 3.111%
As long as these politicians can get away with it They will keep it closed forever power grab