Cal-Hi Sports’ CIF Football Crystal Ball – Many Of The State Bowl Championship Assignments Are Already Taking Shape

By Mark Tennis

Not even halfway through the football regular season, it’s already very possible to start penciling in teams for this year’s CIF Northern California regional championship games. And we aren’t just talking about the top two teams.

At the No. 1 position — which is the team automatically sent to the CIF Open Division state final — there is of course De La Salle-Concord. After the Spartans defeated Folsom 42-27 on Sept. 13 and then Buchanan-Clovis (35-0 on Sept. 20) and St. Mary’s-Stockon (55-17 on Sept. 27), they face only CIF North Coast Section competition the rest of the regular season and playoffs. They haven’t lost in an NCS playoff game since 1991 and none of the other teams in the NCS have shown they can offer much of a challenge so far.

If recent history is a guide, the De La Salle matchup at Folsom probably determined which team goes to the CIF Open Division state final and which one will host a CIF NorCal 1-AA title game.

Folsom won the CIF 1-AA state title last year after losing in the regular season to De La Salle 14-0. The Bulldogs also won that title in 2017 and finished 16-0. DLS hasn’t lost to a team north of Fresno since 1991, and as long as that streak is going, it doesn’t make any sense for the CIF to consider any other team for the Open Division.

Following the loss to the Spartans, Folsom bounced back to beat Oak Ridge-El Dorado Hills 36-33. Oak Ridge was the second highest-ranked team from the Sac-Joaquin Section in Division I so the odds of the Bulldogs not losing again through the SJS playoffs are high.

Assuming De La Salle and Folsom are locked in, the only major question mark for the top of the NorCal bowl board is whether the Central Coast Section Open Division champion or the Central Section Division I champion would join the Bulldogs in the 1-AA bracket.

In the CCS, the two leading teams over the first few weeks of the season have been Serra-San Mateo and Valley Christian-San Jose. Serra’s first few games on the schedule have been a little bit tougher, but the two teams will meet in the West Catholic Athletic League and could play again in the CCS Open final.

Central-Fresno is going for a third straight Central Section Div. I crown and was the team which played Folsom in last season’s NorCal 1-AA game (losing 84-46 in a game that featured more than 1,400 yards). If Serra or Valley Christian were to defeat the other team twice, it would appear that team would be the choice to face Folsom. If those two split and Central completes its section playoffs with a perfect record, then another Folsom-Central matchup is likely.

There also are other slots on the NorCal board that can be filled in, too. On the same night De La Salle played Folsom, McClymonds-Oakland topped Campolindo-Moraga 41-21.

Mack has won CIF state titles the last three seasons in 5-AA, 5A and 4A. This year, it’s a guarantee that the Warriors are going to be in a much higher division if they, as expected, win another Oakland Section crown. But how high?

The assurance of Mack going much higher is because the CCS will no longer be getting Open Division runner-ups or two other Open Division champions qualified for the CIF bowls. It’s just going to be one CCS Open Division winner. The next CCS champion (Division I) will essentially only be that section’s ninth-best team.

Last year, McClymonds was on the NorCal board behind CCS teams Valley Christian, St. Francis-Mountain View, Menlo-Atherton-Atherton and Wilcox-Santa Clara. The Warriors will only be behind the Open Division winner this year. Plus, they’ve already got a win over CIF North Coast Section Div. III contender Marin Catholic-Kentfield and Div. II-power Campolindo.

McClymonds still has a tough game against San Leandro, but it should cruise to the Oakland Section title after that. The Warriors might be behind Clayton Valley-Concord on the NorCal board if the Ugly Eagles were to win the NCS Div. II title, especially based on Clayton Valley’s solid showing in a one-point loss to Liberty-Brentwood.

Other than that, though, head coach Michael Peters’ team probably will be either draw a CIF 2-AA or 2-A berth come December. That’s high for a school with low enrollment like McClymonds, but for competitive equity purposes it’ll be hard to be any lower. Peters obviously couldn’t tell his players to go out and lose to Campolindo and Marin Catholic for a lower (and easier) state division.

At the bottom of the NorCal board, it already doesn’t look like San Francisco will have a team like last year’s Lincoln — which won the CIF 6-A state title. That would put the eventual SF champion at the very bottom of the board (where Denair was last year). And with the NCS getting one more team into the field, that last division this year probably will have an actual game played instead of a bye.

Let’s just hope all of this speculation will be fun and can continue through the section playoffs. No natural disasters or smokey skies please.

Mark Tennis is the co-founder of Cal-Hi Sports and publisher of CalHiSports.com. He writes an exclusive monthly column for SportStars Magazine. This column appears in the October 2019 issue, which can be viewed now at SportStarsMag.com