A barometer of the Bay Area economy is expected to wane in the spring from the effects of the coronavirus, but it’s unclear what the recent widening spread of the virus will mean for the summer and fall.
“Up to now there has been little of any impact” at the Port of Oakland, which is an economic barometer for the Bay Area, port spokesman Mike Zampa said.
But he said the latest data for the port is through only January.
The port is barometer and engine for the Bay Area as 80,000 jobs in the region are connected to port activity.
Zampa said growth in cargo volume is expected to slide moderately in the spring because shipping lines will suspend some voyages between Asia and the U.S. Up to 30 voyages might be canceled between Asia and the West
Coast.
The president of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, which
advocates for ocean carriers and marine terminal operators, among other
shipping-related workers, agreed.
John McLaurin added that cargo volumes are expected to be down 25 percent for the month of February and 15 percent in the first quarter at the Port of Los Angeles, citing a statement by the executive director of the port.
Zampa said the cancellation of as many as 30 voyages is a moderate decrease because 30 to 40 ships arrive per week, typically.
He said port officials don’t see beyond the next few months.
“We’re waiting to see what comes next,” he said.
The future may not be pretty because the stock market, an indicator of future economic activity, swooned again Thursday in the biggest point drop ever for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
A correction is upon the market as the Dow dropped about 1,200 points Thursday and is down about 3,200 points since fears over the virus gripped traders last week.
International trade economist and BitIQ legit app blogger Jock O’Connell said production in China is down and will slowly ramp up. Until then, some essentials for U.S. residents will be in short supply.
“We rely upon China for many essentials of life,” O’Connell said, such as clothing, home furnishings and footwear.
33 comments
You can probably thank the media for this.
Is this a joke? 50k folks died from the flu during the 2017-18 flu season, in the USA. No critical thinking skills anymore. we have 1 death in Washington. Sensationalism is even at Claycord.com.
Hey Jana, looks like you should have taken 60 seconds to do the online research:
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with 45 million illnesses, 21 million medical visits, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths during the 2017–2018 influenza season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm
@ Studio Five O
So what your saying is 98% of the people who catch the Coronavirus are going to survive and likely had mild cases… Correct?
The question I have is what is the age and health of those 1,100 people who died world-wide and the 1 reported death in the USA.
If they are the very young and the very old than it is acting exactly like influenza.
@ Studio Five O
It seemed to me that when you said, “you have no clue what the death vs infection” rate was and “Yes let that sink in….” you were trying to say something but be that as it may, my conclusion is based on your numbers, a 98% survival rate is pretty good.
I would also think you would be interested in the health histories of those that have died. There is a major difference between a virus that kills someone who has an immature immune system or a weakened immune system due to age/preexisting health problems and a health adult but thinking like that doesn’t help you make money in the stock market now does it?
I also suspect that the death vs infection rate will go down once the virus moves to health adults and the weather warms up but time will tell.
The supply line for auto parts from China is being impacted bigtime – Don’t put off getting repairs done… Many “American” cars are being made outside the USA…
“We rely upon China for many essentials of life,” O’Connell said, “such as clothing, home furnishings and footwear.”
Guess we’re going to get deeper into recycling.
That is so simplistic a comment to be comical.
Please tell my CPT Bebops, where is the computer or cellular phone you used to make that brilliant comment made? What country was it produced in? I can guarantee it was not made in the old USA.
In 2014 it was estimated that if an iPhone was made in the USA it would cost an estimated $2000 per phone. That was over twice the price of an iPhone 5 in 2014. If you extrapolate that added cost across the US market for every item sold in the USA, well you get the point. It would kill the US economy and we would have a depression.
The USA imports approximately $506 billion worth of Chinese goods every year. It’s going to take a hell of a lot more than just “wishful deeper recycling” to make up the difference.
Need I also point out the reason why the US and China will NEVER have a shooting war is because both economies depend on the other for their very economic survival? Remove the trade and its game on.
Carnac, apparently you missed the irony in my comment. 😉
carnac just likes to rant
There is a group of people who would love to see America in a deep depression this year.
With the economy as strong as it is, built on business and not conjecture, I think it would take more than a virus to bring America into a depression.
The media is all for hype. Scare the people, They want to force a panic.
Only Politicians and the media are in panic.
Sane Americans see this for what it is, a virus.
Take appropriate safety precautions, a serum is on the way.
This whole scare will be over soon.
In the next two months, check the Dow for Insider Trading…. Thousands of you and I could sell off and barely cause a blip in the Market. But exercise of MILLIONS of shares by INSIDERS can and do REPOSITION the overall market. We and are being PLAYED, using a genetically altered Cold Virus.
I am currently shopping for deals in the market. I have my entire ira contribution for 2020 ready to go , I definitely looking in to Reynolds consumer products.
You are going to get rich investing in Hefty trash bags? Wow!
@ jojo.
Not trash bags…. aluminum foil…
And this was made with a healthy dose of sarcasm.
However I am looking at stocks to buy.
I’ve received a couple of bulletins from my broker that say much of the volatility in the market is due to computer trading. Some speculate that up to 80% of market activity takes place by computers guided by algorithms and without human intervention. Connectivity and distance have become critical because communication is limited to the speed of light.
lovelace: Since REYN is an IPO (of sorts) I thought it might be a stock worth looking at. Maybe it is. Enjoy.
Studio. Vangard is one of the top 25 Brokerages in the Country…
Never confuse skill with a bull market. A rising tide lifts all boats.
@No Excuses – I agree with you 100% regarding the “plunge” in the stock market. We are definitely being played. I will admit, I was getting scared into thinking that this will be 2008 all over again. I have a house for sale and I was afraid that real estate prices would drop, as well. We are moving to a smaller place and the house I’m selling is quite large. Yep, it would be great for a family with children – but I sure as hell would never rent it out. Not with the laws in CA where the renters have more rights than the property owners. Anyway, once again, the Dems and the msm “doth protest too much”. Something is fishy here and, I believe, it is market manipulation. Yes, take precautions against the C-Virus. First thing to do to protect yourself is to stop listening to the news and to politicians.
Moved +$24,000 out of bonds into equities Friday. A market discount of 10% based on fear is a buying opportunity. Buy low, sell high.
Yes, l agree no need to panic, but since there are many unknown about this virus, it is certainly something we should take seriously, yes it is a virus, but seems like a very unpredictable virus.
Go ahead and be careless and believe it hyped by the
Media, most of us will rather be safe than sorry
Regarding clothing, home furniture, and shoes from China as essentials for life, I think most could go for a year or more without those “essentials”. Smart or poor people could go indefinitely. Remember “hand me downs”?
As for smart phones, for most people they are simply toys and Apple has gouged its customers since day one.
Now is a good time to get help if you have an alcohol or addiction problem. Alcohol can weaken the immune system and thus compromise health, Seek help. The life you save may not only be yours, but that of your entire family and loved ones.
@ jojo.
Not trash bags…. aluminum foil…
And this was made with a healthy dose of sarcasm.
However I am looking at stocks to buy.
Restaurant Servers need to take extra precautions when serving food and coffee! I see certain Coffee Shop Baristas carelessly handling coffee cups with their bare hands. And certain food servers talking and holding the plate of food very close to their faces when serving. Unsanitary in light of the C Virus spreading faster by the day. Just an observation!
Forgot to add: This can hurt the food and restaurant business if Servers do not take precautions to be sanitary and safe. I don’t want to go to a coffee shop or restaurant and see the servers handling drinks and food in an unsanitary manner during this cold and virus season.
Will all the tech people be going away?
From an actual expert:
A number of you have asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. I have a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you should do about it. For those of you who don’t know me well, I am a preventive medicine physician and infectious disease epidemiologist. I graduated from the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service and have over 17 years of experience in the field, most of that with CDC.
Wishing everyone good health,
Juliana
Who should I listen to?
The CDC and your state health department are your best place for information about COVID-19. Be cautious about other sources of information – many of them will not be reliable or accurate.
How bad is this going to be?
It’s possible that COVID-19 will be similar to a bad flu year but there are a number of indications that it will be very much like the 1918 Flu Pandemic. To put that in perspective, the 1918 flu did not end civilization as we know it but it was the second-deadliest event of the last 200 years. Expect people you know to die from this.
However, there is one critical difference between COVID-19 and the 1918 flu – the 1918 flu virus hit children and young adults particularly hard. COVID-19 seems to be most severe in older adults. Children and young adults generally have mild infections. We are grateful for this.
What can we expect?
This is not the zombie apocalypse. Core infrastructure (e.g., power, water, supermarkets, internet, government, etc.) will continue to work, perhaps with some minor disruptions.
There will be significant economic disruption: a global recession is very possible and there will probably be significant shortages of some products. The healthcare system will be hit the hardest. The number of people who are likely to get sick is higher than our healthcare systems can handle.
Daily life will be impacted in important ways. Travel is likely to be limited and public gatherings will probably be canceled. Schools will probably be closed. Expect health departments to start issuing these orders in the near future, especially on the West Coast.
The acute pandemic will probably last at least for several months and quite possibly for a year or two.
What can we do?
We can’t keep COVID-19 from being a global pandemic but the more we can do to slow the spread of the disease, the less severe the impact will be. With that in mind, here are the things you can do:
Stay calm but take it seriously. This will likely be bad but it’s not the apocalypse.
Stay home if you’re sick or someone in your house is sick.
Leave medical supplies for healthcare workers. You shouldn’t be stockpiling masks or other medical supplies. They are needed in hospitals to keep our healthcare workers healthy.
Wash your hands. Get in the habit of frequently washing your hands thoroughly and covering your cough.
Minimize your exposure. Now that we’re seeing community transmission, it’s time to start seriously cutting back on your exposure to other people. Depending on your circumstances:
Cancel all non-essential travel (and most of it is non-essential!)
Avoid large-scale gatherings
Work from home if possible
Minimize direct contact with others including hand shakes and hugs
Reduce your trips out of the house. If possible, shop for two weeks of groceries at once or consider having your groceries delivered.
Remember, keep calm and prepare. This is likely to be bad but if we respond calmly and thoughtfully we can handle it.
Feel free to share this email as you see fit.
**************************
Juliana Grant, MD MPH
Public health and epidemiology consultant
juliana@julianagrant.com
julianagrant.com
julianagrant.com
Juliana Grant, MD MPH
The U.S. should definitely have a ‘strategic reserve’ of raw materials and manufacturing capability. I’m not worried about clothing or food. Rare earth metals, high tech everything, steel, etc…We are now a net exporter of energy (fossil fuels) and as a matter of national security we should have that capability in other areas.
BTW- trade agreements allow for designation of some strategic industries.
“When in danger or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout!”
Raise a flag, shoot a gun, tell everyone what we have done!
The experts disagree on how long this will last so the most critical items we get from China, poorly made toys and cheap toaster ovens, should be stockpiled in strategic reserves to be released in times of national emergency.
Comments are closed.