UPDATE: 108 Confirmed Cases Of Coronavirus In Contra Costa County

March 25, 2020 13:15 pm · 34 comments

Contra Costa is now reporting 108 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the county, which is 22 more than yesterday.

One person (a Contra Costa man in his 70s with underlying health conditions who recently traveled outside the country) has died from the coronavirus in the county, according to the health department.

note: the county did not update the date on their website. 108 is the total number as of today (March 25)

{ 34 comments… read them below or add one }

Bad Nombre March 25, 2020 at 1:41 PM

It will be nice when these numbers can be put into some meaningful perspective. Reportedly, tests are being developed to identify those who are already carrying antibodies to the virus.

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Annoyed March 25, 2020 at 1:46 PM

Confirmed cases has increased at a rate of roughly 17% per day over the last week. At that same rate of increase there will be 84306 cases by Cinco de Mayo.

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CalOldBlue March 25, 2020 at 1:57 PM

Where are you pulling your numbers?

Johns Hopkins numbers indicate a day-over-day rise of between 20% and 50% over the past week (for the nation as a whole), and a current count of confirmed infected at 62,086.

A 17% day-over-day rise from 62,086 puts you over 4 MILLION by April 22nd. You need to check your math.

Note: a 25% day-over-day rise moves the April 22nd count to over 25 Million. The miracle of compound interest.

Annoyed March 25, 2020 at 5:56 PM

@cal – those were contra costa county only numbers, both rate of increase and “future” cases. 108*(1.17^42)

CalOldBlue March 25, 2020 at 7:50 PM

Ah; thanks!

Yes, based on that assumption the math does work out.

For those following this thread, note that raising the assumed percentage rise from 17% to 25% changes the ‘Cinco de Mayo’ number to something like 1.25 Million, or the entire population of the county.

This is why containing the rate of growth is so important (flattening the curve).

At 17%, by 5/5 all of Walnut Creek has it… at 25%, the entire county does.

Atticus Thraxx March 25, 2020 at 1:55 PM

Actionable statistics are weeks, maybe months away. Taking drastic action based on bits and pieces of not reliable information this early would be foolish. So I expect that’s exactly what we’ll do. 🙂

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Always Right March 25, 2020 at 6:53 PM

@Atticus – the CDC is now getting statistics from every American hospital. Daily. New admissions are being tested. They now know where the hot spots are and what hospitals are nearing capacity.

Antibody testing is coming soon. That will identify an army of people already immune to this virus who can help with healthcare.

anon March 25, 2020 at 2:22 PM

Just look at New York people who do not do what they are told to do…abusive & obnoxious types & look at the # of cases each day.. I know those types & have dealt with them a lot & I am not surprised at all…..

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The Mamba March 25, 2020 at 2:54 PM

Cuomo and De Blasio were a week too slow locking things down, and now New Yorkers are suffering en masse because of it.

The Mamba March 25, 2020 at 2:53 PM

We are definitely in the acceleration stage, take care of yourselves folks. Thank god we locked down earlier than most, hopefully it will make a difference.

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Cellophane March 25, 2020 at 3:51 PM

Here’s a site for the CA version of the numbers.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx

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Clayton Black Glove March 25, 2020 at 3:58 PM

Yes, I’m so appreciative that the government have been there to help us thru this process. We will get through what we need to get through. Only One can really, definitely know what to expect.
Good luck if finding peace in a turbulent place, and still hope that turbulant place isn’t a destined time.

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To Do List March 25, 2020 at 4:22 PM

I agree we are still in the ramp up stage, but beyond that the statistics are very poorly understood and probably misreported. Lots more people have or had the virus than show in the stats, so when the number deceased is divided by a wrong number, the fatality rate is way overstated. Its like wondering what the car break-in rate is at BART when half the victims don’t bother reporting it.

A probably better calculator has been use of the Diamond Princess ship situation which is like a clinical study cause all could be measured. Six people died out of 705 testing positive out of 3,711 on the ship so a fatality rate of 0.85% for those who get it and and none under age 70 died. Half those testing positive had no symptoms. It is serious, but too many are trying to scare others with questionable data.

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Clayton Black Glove March 25, 2020 at 4:42 PM

Truly meant it in a comppationate way.

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WC Resident March 25, 2020 at 4:53 PM

People are in panic buying mode. If they see anything they buy it if it seems remotely usable. We did some grocery shopping this morning and could not get cottage cheese, brown sugar, yogurt, anything from the frozen food isle including frozen chick breasts, lasagna, Aidells sausage from the meat isle, etc. There were also many things on the list where we had to settle for less desirable substitutes. For example, there are no large family size boxes of breakfast cereal. It’s like those pictures of the old Soviet Union.

Maruchan Ramen in shrimp and Chili flavors? LOL, those flavors suck and that’s why pallet loads are still available. We are not desperate enough, yet…

Panic buying makes sense because if anyone in the household gets COVID-19 then the household is under quarantine for at least two months and ideally three. I suspect that’s why today’s government request to only buy a week of supplies is being ignored.

At present one in 500 people are suspected to have COVID-19 (using 50 times the confirmed number). That does not seem like much but as the virus can last up to 17 days on many surfaces any time someone goes into a public area they are guaranteed to be exposed to where thousands of people have been in the last 17 days. The infection rate will go up until it hits natural saturation. The shelter in place we are living under now only slows down the rate until saturation, it will not lower the saturation level.

I suspect the shelter in place needs to get tighter. For example, nobody allowed out in public unless they are wearing a mask. Of course, you can’t get a mask but I see people starting to use substitutes.

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oniwy March 25, 2020 at 6:42 PM

If I couldn’t get anything but the weird-flavored ramen, I’d buy that, choosing the cheapest available, and then just don’t use the flavoring packet. Add in powdered bouillon, chicken or beef flavor instead. If there are only bouillon cubes available, I’d crush the cubes with a drinking glass and stir in enough to flavor it. A long time ago, we bought one of those little Euro Cuisine yogurt makers, the white plastic plug-in one, and learned to make yogurt with the yogurt culture starter packs. We’ve made perfectly good yogurt using dry powdered milk. Wiped out any health benefits by topping it with canned cherry pie filling, but it tastes just like the expensive yogurt in the little cups from the store. Naturally, we also preferred the most expensive starter, so not a big economic winner, either. You can use some of the first yogurt batch to start a second, but that’s as far as you can stretch the starter. Still seems to be available from Amazon, all of it.

To Do List March 25, 2020 at 7:26 PM

You might want to try shopping at another place. I went out at 8:30 this morning (won’t say where) and they had everything I hoped for on my list except garlic. I did not expect TP and paper towels so I’m not including those. Your experience is very different than mine.

Bad Nombre March 25, 2020 at 9:15 PM

I know at least one place that seemingly has unlimited supplies of Aidells sausage. I guess it is hit and miss. Someone delivered to the wrong store.

Silva March 26, 2020 at 5:10 AM

WC Resident, I don’t eat wheat or most other kind of noodles (I had some bean and lentil flour pasta from TJ’s the other day that was delicious!) but IMO you have to put other stuff in with any ramen package for it to be edible. My husband adds stuff like chopped green onion, cilantro, chilis, or whatever. Leftover veggies and scraps of meat will fix them. He’ll sometimes beat an egg and when the soup’s cooked and hot he slowly stirs it in.

Silva March 26, 2020 at 5:18 AM

Oh and we used some Trader Joe’s red lentil flour pasta (I had in the pantry with my disaster supplies before this episode started) in shrimp with alfredo sauce and it was great. My 10 year old grandson even liked it.

Yardbuider March 25, 2020 at 5:01 PM

Where exactly are these contaminations happening ? The Public should know.

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Hanne Jeppesen March 25, 2020 at 9:22 PM

oniwy I too suggest you try other places. Just yesterday I went to Nob Hill Foods in Martinez, yes no paper product or sanitizer, but they had plenty of everything else, even bread. A few days ago I went to Grocery Outlet on Willow Pass the had milk, cream and all other milk products, plenty of cheese, fruits and veggies and also meat. Last week I went to Sprout they too had plenty of same items, didn’t check for bread since right now I’m not eating bread.

The Fearless Spectator March 25, 2020 at 5:44 PM

I know this sounds way to easy:

Every day publish the number of people tested, and the number of confirmed cases. Then we can see the actual trend line. Perhaps they don’t want us to see it……

As I drove past our neighborhood park today I was amazed to see the number of parents and children frolicking. Its clear there are still a lot of Contra Costa residents not taking this seriously. To me, they are no better than hoarders. They are directly contributing to prolonging this virus, because they are selfish. Yet we all pay for it.

Stupidity has a certain charm, ignorance does not.

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Janon March 26, 2020 at 1:06 AM

I take it you’ve never been trapped inside with a toddler or preschooler….

Original G March 25, 2020 at 5:47 PM

Too bad panic buying doesn’t come with free condoms,
might limit stupidity to this generation.

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Anonymous March 25, 2020 at 5:59 PM

Kind of off topic, but I read today the SJPD donated 50,000 N95 masks to local SJ hospitals. The masks were purchased after H1N1/09, so the oldest masks could be 10 years old. If N95 masks have a shelf life of 5 years, it’s safe to assume the majority of those masks have expired expiration dates. Will the five San Jose hospitals that received them actually use them?

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JL March 25, 2020 at 6:40 PM

“N95 masks really don’t expire in terms of their functionality. The only part that is subject to damage over time are the elastic bands that attach the mask to the user’s face, which can be damaged by sunlight,” Dr. John Balmes, professor of environmental health science at Berkeley Public Health, told Business Insider in an email.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-do-n95-face-masks-expire-still-work-2020-3

Stop look and listen March 25, 2020 at 6:36 PM

Its amazing how many perfectly capable looking adults cannot go in the grocery store alone to pick up a couple items!

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Candy March 26, 2020 at 10:31 AM

You have a valid point, grocery shopping can be done solo. I’m wondering if grocery shopping is becoming more risky. The last time I went to Safeway (last Saturday), I thought it was very crowded and self checkout doesn’t appear to be sanitized on regular basis.

Chicken Little March 26, 2020 at 11:28 AM

How is it any more dangerous if my wife and I go shopping together? If one of us gets the virus, the other one is also going to get it, since we sleep in the same bed. And it’s not like we split up when we get to the store and run around coughing on as many people as possible.

chris March 25, 2020 at 7:52 PM

Does anyone know if a curfew is attached to the shelter in place?

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Candy March 26, 2020 at 11:21 AM

Not yet.

Curious. March 25, 2020 at 9:36 PM

I am curious what is the percentage per Day of increase. Since I don’t know the figures per day I can’t figure it out myself and percentages of deaths are the numbers I’m looking for basically just Contra Costa alone.

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Thoughts March 26, 2020 at 1:45 PM

131 today. Thats 23 more than yesterday. Is that a 21 percent increase from yesterday?

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