CHART: Burglaries Slowly Declining in the City of Concord

March 5, 2014 8:00 am · 42 comments


It looks like burglaries in the City of Concord are on the decline.

This chart was created by our fellow Claycordian David Molstad.

Here’s what he had to say about it….

I have long been curious as to the trend of burglaries in Concord, so I decided to chart the information and see what the trend is. I took all of burglary reports posted on Claycord and used the date of the report and the number of burglaries to create the chart. Probably not the most scientific methodology, but enough to show a trend.

Attached is the report. I hope you will decide to post this to show, if nothing more, the great job CPD is doing. Things are getting better here, not worse.

Thanks, David, great job! We appreciate you creating this for all of us to see!

Connie Dobbs March 5, 2014 at 8:30 AM

Hi, Mr. Molstad. Nice to hear from you again.

Meth Monsters March 5, 2014 at 8:39 AM

Don’t get to excited claycord it’s the wheather….just wait til
Get a little warmer then they all come out from the rocks they been hiding under!!!!

Kelly March 5, 2014 at 8:51 AM

David, this is wonderful! Thank you for giving us a sense of pride in our community. We definitely cannot be compared to Oakland or any other crime ridden city.

Burglaries are Declining March 5, 2014 at 9:01 AM

because most everybody’s been roobed already.

Atticus Thraxx March 5, 2014 at 9:05 AM

How many of these crimes resulted in arrests would be a better indicator of CPD performance seems to me.

Dr. Jellyfinger® March 5, 2014 at 9:12 AM

Even the burglars can’t find work.

Also March 5, 2014 at 9:13 AM

Not all burglaries are reported and not all are listed on the claycord report.

Jojo Potato March 5, 2014 at 9:21 AM

That spike in 2010 really makes the trend line go down to the right. However if you looked back further back, like 2009, 2008 and 2007 the burglary rate was lower so the trend line would have been flat. Further back 2005 was another spike, then even further back the rate was lower. Selecting the range of data used to calculate the trend makes a huge difference. You do have to start somewhere but I think using 2010 is pretty misleading. There are a bunch of internet sites with crime data over long periods, check it out if you are interested.

Anon March 5, 2014 at 9:29 AM

David, thanks for your time & effort in putting this together- much appreciated.

RunnerDope March 5, 2014 at 9:30 AM


What’s with the red line? How did you calculate it? It doesn’t seem accurate since the data shows the least number of burglaries in the first half of 2013, yet the red line keeps going down after that even though burglaries rise.

no name March 5, 2014 at 9:34 AM

A big reason it may seem on the decline is not everyone is calling when they get robbed or carjacked. I had my car broken into 2 days ago. I didn’t call CPD cause I know they won’t catch the thief,

Julio March 5, 2014 at 9:39 AM

It is kind of a cyclical thing so it will continue to rise and fall. The weather does have something to do with it also.

Antioch has also seen a change for which we are very grateful.

David Molstad March 5, 2014 at 9:41 AM

Hello, Ms. Dobbs. Thank you.

NoMoreFreeRide March 5, 2014 at 9:44 AM

Even better to see a map showing the locations

Theyellowranger March 5, 2014 at 9:51 AM

I would think an improving economy would also reduce crime.

Darwin March 5, 2014 at 9:54 AM

The drug addicts are switching from burglaries to identity theft, because it is harder to get caught and more profitable. it takes months before they get caught. I suggest buy a locking mail box.

Vizzic March 5, 2014 at 10:00 AM


If you look at the chart, you will notice it runs from late 2010 to Feb 2014 and includes all 4 seasons.

just a concordian March 5, 2014 at 10:19 AM

There are ways to prevent your house from being robbed. A dog, an alarm, even an alarm sign on your yard will act as a deterrent. If I know I am coming back after dark, I often leave a light on. When I go out at night I also leave on the TV sound, loud enough that it would be heard from the front door. I also quite erratically shift the cars in the driveway, sometimes I will leave one parked on the street and one on the driveway. Never leave the garage remote in the car. And as I have learned on Claycord, my car registration is NOT in the car either! Before I leave for work in the morning I scan the street, make sure no one is hiding in the bushes or there are no people in the parked cars around the neighborhood. My neighbor literally across the street had her car burglarized, in her driveway, and several items were taken, including an iPad and her purse. So I make sure NEVER to leave anything in my cars that would attract a opportunistic thieving entrepreneur. In addition, when I am home, I ALWAYS open the door to knockers, big black dog in tow next to me. Often that’s deterrent enough as most people will step back a couple of feet.
Of course I am not foolproof by any means, but we all can take steps to minimize as much as we can the risk of being targeted.

And great job to David for putting this together.

the big cheese March 5, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Alarm sales are up, gun sales are up, security cameras are up. How does that correlate? I would like to see the direct comparision…………..

Matt March 5, 2014 at 10:23 AM

Hopefully people are WISING UP as well.

There will always be crime, but there’s a lot you can do to avoid being a victim.

I like the Mayor’s wake up calls. I hope he’s getting through to people.

Michelle March 5, 2014 at 10:25 AM

Jojo, I noticed that too. But if you look at the trend from 2011-present and from 2012-present, it’s sill declining. Most of the spikes seem to be around the holidays, from what I can tell. Maybe David can create run charts of that information. David?

rage ricin March 5, 2014 at 10:27 AM

@Jojo Potato
You’re spot on with your thinking. Statisticians (and accountants) can skew numbers easily (David: I’m not implying this is your intent. Your analysis is appreciated but it’s important not to put too much into interpretation).

In any case, awareness of the data and maintaining a conversation on local crime is important.

David Molstad March 5, 2014 at 10:51 AM

@ RunnerDope

The red line is the “trend” line, showing the “prevailing direction” calculated from the data entered. I used Excel to create the graph.

The4thBore March 5, 2014 at 11:19 AM

A plot map (as mentioned above) would be a great way to take police data to our beloved city council to drive community action. Learning about areas with high burglary trend or spikes help the community decide if traffic, lighting, speed enforcement or other changes are needed to trend down crime.

Yhe Phantom March 5, 2014 at 12:05 PM

David Molstad

Very fine scholarship, and thanks for showing us the results.

Such data needs to be in the hands of civic leaders and particularly the CPD.

Prevention is more effective than arrests and costs less as police salaries are smaller than jail and prison costs. And the money goes to nicer people.

Possible causes for reductions?
Three strikes
DNA evidence

There are four kinds of people:
People who learn from data
People who are never satisfied with data
People who argue with data
People who hate data
and certain Klingons.

jtkatec March 5, 2014 at 12:27 PM

Mr. Molstad, nice chart, but it brings to my mind the need for charting the death of fire hydrants….? Maybe by make and model of vehicle, or age of driver…?

RANDOM TASK March 5, 2014 at 1:20 PM

FIRST OFF Oaktown had to start somewhere and it took several years and union payoffs to do it. Concord is on its way though ..don’t you worry …the councils goal is to make Concord an exact copy of a degenerate view of how a city is run and maintained ….in other words they have no idea ….they are business owners with agendas for themselves and are running Concord into the ground to further their own needs. The give you a small plot of grass and cage it in and that makes you happy so their time can be spent on warming up their life time benefits by hosting 2 events on tax payer money a year….. so the bi-laws they abuse are settled and they focus on fleecing the city with backdoor deals and ” funds” misplacements for after they are collecting freebees for the rest of their lives and when a member tries to rectify this they are passed up for the free mayor ride ….so to show their wielded power to anyone who tries to take away their free ride. BUT if you really think the crime is going down your as shallow as them. The police that have to back em are so thin in the ranks people are casing whole, neighborhoods to steal from. ENJOY !!!

hilly March 5, 2014 at 1:22 PM

this looks like a good bit of work to produce! thanks! I must confess though, I do not get the red line across the middle. Shouldn’t it be from highest point to next and then next chronologically? I guess that would be showing it differently. It seems deceptive to have the red line where it currently is.
I do applaud CPD for its efforts. The people of Concord should be given kudos for utilizing by sending in updates of activity, videos, and reports of odd solicitations for others to comment on. This is a great hand in hand partnership for the community to fight back with a zero tolerance for burglaries and nasty thieves! Thanks for reply –educate me about the red line placement, will someone>?

RANDOM TASK March 5, 2014 at 1:25 PM

@ 25 I AGREE ……..WITH THE KLINGONS PART ….LOL. that being said the cpd should already know how the crime is flowing so as to curb it and or stop it. Now the civic leaders do not care about crime unless it happens next door ……and we shall see if anything comes of that as far as increasing surveillance and police to stop an ongoing trend of B & E /WITH WEAPONS….AND VILOENCE.

ConcordMike March 5, 2014 at 1:33 PM

There are apps with crime maps, buy I can’t locate one for Concord. Anyone?

Shuley March 5, 2014 at 1:52 PM

This cannot be right. All I have read in the comments section over the years is how Concord is getting worse and worse and is on it’s way to being the next East Oakland. Glad someone else didn’t believe it..

Jojo Potato March 5, 2014 at 2:03 PM

“There are liars, damned liars and statisticians.” Mark Twain.

I am not trying to call anybody a liar, I think this kind of analysis is great. But, it’s just a start, we need to see some other things too. Like different time periods and other items like solved crimes vs reported. Does the CPD release stats like that? They should, or do we have to do an FOI request to get it?

ConcordMike March 5, 2014 at 2:03 PM

Maybe the PD needs to find one of the apps to report crimes to.
Other big cities do it.
CrimeReport, Raids Online, Crime Map, etc. is a waste of time.
Maybe someone could convert the Concord Burglary maps to a search map of all crimes for ClayCordians?
Just some ideas.

Stats March 5, 2014 at 2:26 PM

Hey ConcordMike,
Here is the website:

Vicky March 5, 2014 at 2:32 PM

Random Task, I don’t know what happened, but something happened a long time ago. I don’t whether to laugh or cry. If you don’t want to spend any money, get out and enjoy some free events!

Stats March 5, 2014 at 2:38 PM

Did someone request a pin map?

Anonymous March 5, 2014 at 3:43 PM

Well our Chief doesn’t list burglary as one of his priorities. Of course domestic violence is a priority to him, but that’s part of a bigger political agenda. I suspect the beat cops and detectives take burglary more seriously then the Chief.

They caught my burglar and I actually got some stuff back.

RANDOM TASK March 5, 2014 at 5:25 PM

lol wow yes something did happen ……BUMS….ILLEGALS …THUGS RUNNING NEIGHBORHOODS ….ELLIS PARK USED TO BE NICE …….SUNVALLEY MALL WAS NICE PLACE TO GO LATE AT NIGHT ON HOT DAYS …….TODOS SANTOS PARK BEING USED AS A CITY COUNCIL TOOL TO RULE THEM ALL……BUSINEESES BEING CLOSED BECAUSE THE CITY IS IGNORANT IN SIMPLE MATH ……DID I MENTION BUMS……AS WELL AS CAN’T GO ON OR OFF AND ON RAMP WITHOUT BEING MUGGED FOR MONEY…….CAN’T GET ANYTHING FROM HOME DEPOT OR UHAUL WITH OUT GOING THROUGH TIAJUANA……..please request more of how this city has gone straight down hill and has no sign of stopping. Small city with big city problems because the tools running it are only focused on their own agendas and have total power to do what ever they want …which is fleece and burn this city to the ground …well at least till they get to todos dineros park ……the banks pay big money ( payoffs ) to the council to keep the tax payers money going to a piece of grass and seasonal flowers so as they have said to have the appearance of a city center because that is what everyone else does …………….I AM SURE NONE OF THESE ARE WORTH A DIME OF TIME OF COURSE…….sorry caps

Hump Day March 5, 2014 at 5:52 PM

Random Task, I have a stressful gig (but I love my career!), and I’m easily amused. Thanks for the “full disclosure.”

??? March 5, 2014 at 6:04 PM

Anybody else notice the new local crime page update is

Hump Day March 5, 2014 at 6:10 PM

We live in WC, but I’m glad to read that burglaries are down in Concord, and I hope it continues.

Praying for the “narrow minded.” There’s always hope!

Maya Piñon March 6, 2014 at 4:28 PM

Concord is not a good place to live anymore. When I moved out in 2001 it was just starting to get bad with burglaries on the rise. The stores around the city of concord are surrounded by seedy people looking for handouts. I’m happy I moved out.

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